It was 2010, my 2nd year as varsity coach. We were up 3. :10 left. Our opponent called TO. In the huddle, we discussed our strategy. Our players were adamant they wanted to defend.

We played great defense. Their player rose up for a 3. Our best defender was in great position. . . until he came into his landing space on the shot. The whistle blew. 3 shot foul.

Their player stepped up and made all 3. We lost in OT.

Fast forward 12 years. We were playing for a conference championship. Same situation. In the timeout, we decided to foul. Our opponent was an excellent 3 point shooting team.

We said we would foul on the 2nd dribble (they were going full court). This would allow some time to elapse. But they would be unlikely to be in their shooting motion, making it a 1 & 1.

They inbounded to a guard being defended by our best and smartest player (a current D3 All-Conference player). Their player takes his second dribble and our player doesn’t go to foul. He continues to play regular defense as the ball is dribbled up the floor.

Their shooter rises up. . . and misses, thankfully. We won. After the game, I asked him what happened. He said, “I don’t know, I just totally forgot what we discussed!” Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

In his defense, we hadn’t practiced what we discussed in the huddle. That was on me.

The point is, I’ve gone round and round on the foul or defend question. Let’s look at the arguments in favor of each:

Game on the Line: Why Fouling Up 3 Might Be the Right (or Wrong) Call

The Case For Defending:

• You can’t lose - this is an important point. When you decide to foul, it’s possible a team could make a 3 as you go to foul, giving them the opportunity for a 4-point play and the lead.

  Defending takes away the possibility of losing.

• Fouling intentionally isn’t that simple - fouling purposefully isn’t as easy as it seems. You could end up not fouling, as in my story. You could end up committing an intentional foul, again opening up the possibility of defeat.

  It takes practice time and energy to work on how to foul late in the game. That time takes away from some other area.

• Good defense will produce a low % shot - you should be able to play solid defense for :10. You know your opponent has to shoot a 3, meaning you don’t have to guard drives.

  So while the opponent might shoot 35% on 3’s, in this situation, it’s probably more like 15%. The 3 they take should be covered and contested, making it unlikely to go in.

The Case For Fouling

• A lot has to go right for your opponent - if you foul, the following things have to happen for your opponent to tie the game:

  • Make the 1st free throw

  • Miss the 2nd free throw

  • Offensive rebound the 2nd free throw

  • Score a 2 or 3 (if both free throws were missed)

  That’s an unlikely sequence. More unlikely than 1 thing happening - them making a tough 3.

• Opponents don’t practice the free throw sequence above - very few teams actually practice missing free throws, tipping them out and scoring with a short clock.

  If you have practiced and can execute fouling, you are likely putting your opponent in a situation they haven’t rehearsed.

• You might get an additional offensive possession - let’s say you foul with 6 or 7 seconds left. And by some chance, your opponent does execute the 4 steps above. They miss the 2nd free throw and put it back in with :05.

  You can now call a timeout and have a chance to win the game. If you don’t foul, the opponent’s 3 is likely to be in the last :01-:02 of the game, preventing you from having a chance to score if it goes in.

What’s interesting in this debate is that the data isn’t really conclusive. As I was researching this article, I looked at a number of studies. Most suggest a very small difference in win percentage between teams that foul and those that don’t. That said, this issue provokes strong feelings among coaches. . . 

So, what do you say?

Please reply to this email with your thoughts - should you foul or defend up 3?

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