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PostPosted: 10 Aug 2015, 19:54 

Posts: 1
Breakthrough Basketball

I am part of the boys' basketball team coaching staff for a high school located in the City of Chicago. One of our goals for this season is to help our players improve their game by becoming more efficient and effective for each possession per game. To do accomplish this, we would like to classify a game's possessions into three categories:
1) possessions resulting in a turnover,
2) possessions resulting in zero points being earned, and
3) possessions resulting in one or more points being earned.

We intend to estimate the number of possessions per game by using one of two formulas shown below, or by using our statistics application (Breakthrough Stats by Breakthrough Basketball) by dividing the team points by the team's points/possession.
Formula 1 is from Whatifsports.com: Possessions = FGA+(0.44*FTA)+TOV
Formula 2 is from Dean Smith: Possessions = FGA + FTA / 2 + TOV
Formula 3 is from Dean Oliver: Possessions = FGA - OR + TOV + (0.4 * FTA)

I would appreciate any thoughts you may have on the following questions:
1) How to calculate/estimate the number of possessions ending in no points,
2) How to calculate/estimate the number of possessions ending in one or more points, and
3) What opinion(s) you may have about which formula we should use to estimate the number of possessions, keeping in mind this is for the boys' high school level.

Appreciatively,

Erick


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PostPosted: 17 Aug 2015, 18:44 

Posts: 157
Coach,

I have looked at this post more than a few times in the last few days. I'm still trying to put it together.

You say you want players to be more efficient and effective.

It seems that you are calculating more of a results based statistical analysis as opposed to rating what possessions were effective and/or efficient.

I really can't answer questions, but I wanted to pose a few of my own on this.

Have you given thought to rating the type of shot that was taken instead of the result?
Have a rating for an open lay-up, a back to the basket post-up opportunity, a one on one drive of the lane. An open jump shot, challenged jump shot, open 3-pointer, challenged 3-pointer.

I see these being more important towards improving the efficiency and effectiveness in your possessions.

Would it be necessary to estimate the number of possessions in a game? Wouldn't the number of possessions be easily calculable based on game film?

Are you using this to rate individual player effectiveness or team effectiveness?

Sorry, but these are the questions that go through my mind when I read this.

Brian Sass


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